Report: California to shed 1M jobs during recession - South Florida Business Journal:

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The pace of private-sector job lossesw will slow over the next few but state and local government layoffs are the Business Forecasting Center at the said in its latesrt California and Metro Forecastreleased Wednesday. The forecasr said California’s unemployment will peak at 12.3 percenf early next year, and will remain in double-digit s until the end of 2011. The center produce quarterly economic forecasts of the United States, California and nine metro areas, from Sacramento to Fresn o and the San Francisco Bay In the Sacramento area, unemploymenf will rise from 11.1 percent this year to peak at 11.4 percen t next year, before dipping to 10.2 percent in the report said.
Unemployment is expectefd to reach 9.2 percent in 2012. The Sacramento area is forecastt to rebound in the thirf quarter ofnext year, when job growtgh will improve to 0.8 A “strong rebound is expected to take place in professionakl and business, and educational and health services sectors,” the report said of Sacramento. “Jobg growth is expected to have its first positiv e full yearat 2.0 percent in Sacramento’s real personal income, meanwhile, will grow at a slow rate of 1.5 percent next year.
San Jose and San Franciscpo will be the first metro areas in Northerj California to return totheir pre-recession employment levels, in the second and thircd quarters of 2012, respectively, the study said. Sacramento and Mercedx will be among the last north state metro areas to regainpeak employment, in fourth-quartere 2013. Vallejo is last, with a return expected in the second quarterof 2014. The Centrakl Valley will be hard hit by the combination of recent state tax increases and massive expectecdbudget cuts, the Business Forecasting Centedr said.
“The state budget crisis is a dangerouse aftershock to a region still reelintg from theforeclosure earthquake,” Jeff director of the Business Forecasting Center, said in a news The Central Valley is an economic disastedr area, but most of its “economic shocksa are cyclical in nature rather than permaneny changes such as closed military bases,” the news release said. • Construction continues to lead job losses inpercentager terms, declining another 15 percenyt to 110,000 in 2009. • Manufacturing will lead the decline in losing 135,000 jobs this year. • Retail salezs will not return to theirt 2007 leveluntil 2011.
• New car and truck sales will fallbelow 1.06 milliomn in 2009, after exceeding 2 million for most of the decade. Sales will gradually increase as theeconomuy recovers, reaching 1.46 million next and 1.73 million in 2011. • Housingt starts hit bottom in 2009at 36,000 units, more than 80 percenr below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housingv starts will be back to 100,009 units in 2011, and exceed 150,000 by 2013. Health care is the only sector that will not shrinkmthis year. The gain of 13,000 health care jobs, or 0.9 percent, is the slowesgt growth this decade. • Personal income declines 0.8 percent in 2009.
• Nonfarm payrolls will declineby 1,020,000 jobs statewide during the two-yeare recession. • The California economh will finally hit bottom in the fourtj quarter ofthis year, and will begih a slow, multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 before many key economivc indicators such as unemployment return tohealthyu levels. • The state’as recession should end in the last quarteer ofthis year, but the job market will remain weak throughh most of next year.